Scored once, on a window nobody had looked at
Jul–Dec 2025 was left untouched while the model was developed, then scored a single time with the model frozen. Delayed-mode Argo, … levels, … days, satellite inputs only. The metric is profile-mean RMSE °C, meaning per-depth RMSE at the 15 mandated depths, then an unweighted mean over depths. Lower is better.
We are not the best product in this region. Two baselines beat us, Armor3D and GLORYS2V4, and both ingest the Argo profiles they are then scored against. See the full baseline table.
Per-depth detail, all fifteen levels
Enter any date in the archive and watch the model run
Nothing here is cached in the page. Choosing a date sends that day's surface stack through the ensemble on the server. The first request for a date takes several seconds, after which the server holds that date in memory and depth changes are immediate. The elapsed time, and whether the answer came from cache, is printed under the map every time.
Arrow keys step the date sideways and the depth up and down while the explorer is on screen.
Click anywhere on the map for a modelled column. Red rings mark delayed-mode Argo floats within ±3 days of the chosen date. Click one to compare against what it actually measured.
…
The encoder's own representation of that pixel, read live: the activation immediately before the network's 1×1 output convolution. Bars above the axis are positive, below negative.
The evidence behind the number
2023–24, delayed-mode Argo, … days, … identical rows. The GREP ensemble is published on the exact 101 × 241 PS grid, so there is no horizontal regridding. Lower is better.
HYCOM GOFS 3.1 was scored on its own separate …-day sample: HYCOM …, GLORYS12 …, OceanVision …. This is a different row set and must not be ranked directly against the table above.
Sealed Jul–Dec 2025, … rows: Armor3D …, OceanVision …, GLORYS12 ….
The fair framing
OceanVision is the only product in that table that never sees a subsurface
observation. Every other one ingests the Argo profiles it is then scored against.
Armor3D does so most directly: its declared Copernicus sources are
['In-situ observations', 'Numerical models', 'Satellite observations']
and its method (Guinehut et al. 2012) is an optimal interpolation of in-situ profiles
onto satellite fields.
What that leaves us
Among the six products that do ingest in-situ data, OceanVision beats four: GLORYS12, HYCOM, ORAS5 and C-GLORS. The next real bar is GLORYS2V4 at …, and the whole remaining gap sits at 50 to 150 m.
The production ensemble is four members, combined by per-depth non-negative weights shrunk … % toward equal.
Per-depth blend at … m
Trained separately, not in the ensemble
…
What goes in
…
Rolling window, not the whole archive
…
Tested standalone
…
Scored on the full 2025 year before corrections, the first sealed run lost: OceanVision … against GLORYS12 …. Two measured causes were fixed.
Rejected on the way, stated so nobody repeats them.